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| [December 17, 2012] |
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Sales of Antiretroviral Agents for HIV Will Decline Slightly Over the Next Decade
BURLINGTON, Mass. --(Business Wire)--
Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory
firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that major-market
sales of antiretroviral (ARV) agents for HIV will decline slightly over
the next decade, from an estimated $13.3 billion in 2011 to $12.9
billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the
United Kingdom and Japan.
The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Human Immunodeficiency Virus
(HIV) finds that the primary factor constraining the HIV therapy
market is the generic erosion of numerous commonly prescribed ARV drugs,
such as efavirenz (Bristol-Myers Squibb's Sustiva, Merck/Banyu's
Stocrin), tenofovir (Gilead/Japan Tobacco's Viread), atazanavir
(Bristol-Myers Squibb's Reyataz), darunavir (Janssen's Prezista),
emtricitabine/tenofovir (Gilead/Japan Tobacco's Truvada),
efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir (Gilead/ Bristol-Myers Squibb's
Atripla) and lopinavir/ritonavir (Abbott's Kaletra). Increasing use of
generics will inhibit uptake of new, high-priced agents and is the key
dynamic responsible for reduced sales in European markets, where the
impact of generic erosion will be greatest. All three active
pharmaceutical agents in the 2011 sales leader, Gilead/ Bristol-Myers
Squibb's single-tablet regimen (STR) Atripla will lose patent protection
during the 2011 to 2021 forecast period.
"The anticipated drop in Atripla's price in response to the launch of
generic efavirenz, along with Atripla's patentexpiry in major markets
starting in 2018, will motivate physicians to maintain their patients on
this regimen rather than introduce novel STRs, particularly in acutely
cost-conscious European markets," said Decision Resources Analyst Seamus
Levine-Wilkinson, Ph.D. "Therefore, we forecast a modest patient-share
decline for Atripla in the major markets from 23 percent in 2011 to
approximately 19 percent in 2021."
A key growth driver of the HIV therapy market will be the increasing
uptake of new, premium-priced agents, including integrase inhibitors and
integrase inhibitor-based STRs. Increased diagnosis as a result of
broadening screening efforts and increased drug treatment as a result of
treatment guidelines recommending treatment of HIV cases regardless of
CD4 cell levels will also expand the HIV therapy market, particularly in
the United States.
The findings also reveal that, of the emerging therapies, ViiV's
integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is best poised for commercial success
during the 2011-2021 forecast period. ViiV intends to market
dolutegravir both as a stand-alone product that can be used with
different NRTI backbone regimens and as the key component of a new STR
called 572-Trii, which combines dolutegravir with ViiV's FDC NRTI
Epzicom/Kivexa. Uptake of dolutegravir will be constrained by the
availability of generics for heavily prescribed currently marketed ARV
drugs, such as Atripla. Dolutegravir's strong clinical profile will
allow it to earn sales of $1 billion in 2021 as a stand-alone agent and
$2 billion as part of 572-Trii.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com)
is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services and
consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources
and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision
Resources Group company.
About Decision Resources Group
Decision Resources Group is a cohesive portfolio of companies that
offers best-in-class, high-value information and insights on important
sectors of the healthcare industry. Clients rely on this analysis and
data to make informed decisions. Please visit Decision Resources Group
at www.DecisionResourcesGroup.com.
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